Market Fundamentals Components (the fundies)

Twenty nine years of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation actual data. Plus, eight interconnected forecast models estimate supply, demand, and storage forces that tip the balance of the U.S. natural gas market.

1

29 Years of Market History

SASEA has a deep knowledge base across natural gas, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, and pipeline infrastructure. In addition, SASEA taps into decades of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation data — all queryable through natural conversation.

Ask anything in any context and get factual, logical answers with contextual analysis in ~25 seconds or less.

DATA COVERAGE

14 live data sources · 88+ database tables · 636K+ pre-computed metrics always ready · 29 years of historical depth

2

24-Month Component Forecasts

A suite of walk-forward validated models forecasting every component of natural gas supply, demand, and storage 24 months forward. Each model refreshes daily with live data — zero human intervention.

Experiment with your own assumptions directly in chat, or (with Desk and Team mode) upload the BRAIN Balance Report workbook — SASEA backfills latest actuals and populates forward months with the most recent forecasts.

MODEL SUITE

29 automated fetch + refresh workflows · Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) refresh 6x/day · 6 NWP forecast models · 5-region bottom-up storage stack

US Weather & Economy

Gas-intensity and population-weighted HDD/CDD across 9 Census Divisions with live Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and econometric demand modeling.

Weekly + 6x/day NWPFully Automated

9 Census Divisions · 199 cities

Architecture

CONUS HDD/CDD, implied gas demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 199-city NWP forecasts (GFS + ECMWF + GEFS + EC ENS)
  • Gas-intensity weighted degree days
  • Implied gas demand factors (Bcf/HDD, Bcf/CDD)
  • Fed economic indicators (Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, GDP)
  • 30-year normal deviation analysis

Data Sources

NOAA CPCGFSECMWFGEFSEC ENSFREDEIA

NatGas Production

US natural gas production tracking with rig-based forecasts, Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) basin breakdowns, and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)-calibrated 24-month forward outlook.

Monthly + weekly nowcastFully Automated

Walk-forward validated · ~2% Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

Architecture

US dry gas production (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • National and basin-level production history
  • Rig-count-driven production forecast (Baker Hughes weekly)
  • Walk-forward validated at basin level
  • DPR basin breakdowns (7 basins)
  • STEO-calibrated 24-month forward outlook

Data Sources

EIA-914EIA DPRBaker HughesSTEO

NatGas Imports/Exports (Pipeline & LNG)

Canada pipeline, Mexico pipeline, and LNG trade flows with ensemble regression forecasts and terminal-level detail across the full US LNG export fleet.

MonthlyFully Automated

Ensemble LNG trade forecast

Architecture

Pipeline + LNG trade flows (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly trade flows by route and direction
  • 8 operational US LNG terminals tracked with utilization
  • Under-construction capacity timeline (Rio Grande, Port Arthur, Plaquemines Phase 2)
  • Mexico pipeline exports (R² = 0.96)
  • International hub spreads vs Henry Hub (JKM, TTF, NBP) for LNG shipping economics

Data Sources

EIASTEODOE LNG Reports

NatGas Demand (Non-Electric)

Six non-electric demand sectors — Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Vehicle, Lease & Plant, Pipeline — with weather-normalized HDD/CDD regression forecasts.

MonthlyFully Automated

Sector-level decomposition

Architecture

Res/Com/Ind demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Sector-level demand decomposition (Bcf/d)
  • 199-city population-weighted HDD/CDD drivers
  • Industrial demand tracks Fed capacity utilization + industrial production
  • Weather-demand sensitivity factors by month
  • Residential regression fit R² = 0.978

Data Sources

EIANOAA CPCFRED

NatGas Demand (Electric Generation)

Gas-for-power dispatch modeling — the largest and most volatile demand sector (~35% of total) with a 13,279-generator merit-order dispatch stack across all 7 US ISOs/RTOs.

Daily dispatch + monthly backtestFully Automated

Merit-order dispatch

Architecture

Gas-fired power burn (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 13,279 generators across PJM, ERCOT, MISO, SPP, NYISO, CAISO, ISO-NE
  • Merit-order dispatch stack with per-ISO coal-gas switching
  • Datacenter demand sentinel across 6 corridors — weather-normalized Z-score + YoY threshold alerts
  • Monthly gas burn regression fit R² = 0.954

Data Sources

EIA-930EIASTEOForm 930

NatGas EG Displacement (Nuclear & Renewables)

94 nuclear reactors tracked daily via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), plus wind and solar capacity growth — quantifying gas displacement from non-gas generation changes.

Daily (nuclear) + Monthly (renewables)Fully Automated

Daily reactor-level tracking

Architecture

Nuclear capacity factor, renewable displacement (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 94 nuclear units tracked daily (NRC status)
  • Fleet capacity factor monitoring
  • Seasonal maintenance outage forecasts
  • Wind + solar capacity growth tracking
  • Gas burn displacement estimates (Bcf/d)

Data Sources

NRCEIASTEO

NatGas Storage

Weekly EIA storage tracking with a walk-forward ElasticNet model, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-driven live forecasts, end-of-season projections, and P10/P50/P90 confidence bands.

6x/day (NWP-driven) + weekly validationFully Automated

5.59 Bcf RMSE, 98.1% directional (walk-forward, 53 wks)

Architecture

Weekly storage change forecast (Bcf)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Walk-forward ElasticNet on 500+ weekly features
  • NWP-driven: refreshes with every GFS/ECMWF update
  • Temp bands, seasonal interactions, weather momentum, YoY deltas
  • End-of-season P10/P50/P90 confidence bands

Data Sources

EIANASA POWERNOAA CPCGFSECMWFNRC

NatGas (fundies) Balance Report

30yr industry veteran curated models + agentic AI tuning → 24 months forward with confidence

Every other NatGas S&D balance on the street is a static spreadsheet updated by download/copy/paste at random times. SASEA's Balance Report synthesizes C1-C7 into a live weekly-and-monthly balance with 351 months of historical actual datapoints driving modeled results 24 months forward, refreshed daily across 88 tables with agentic AI running the numbers on demand.

DailyFully Automated

14 S&D components × 24-month forecasts

Architecture

Total supply vs total demand balance (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly S&D balance report (supply, demand, storage residual)
  • 351 months of historical actual datapoints
  • Cross-component integration (all upstream models)
  • V15 storage residual reconciliation (supply − demand → implied)
  • 24-month forward balance with implied storage
  • EOS projection with weekly disaggregation

Data Sources

EIAEIA-930STEONOAANASA POWERFREDBaker HughesNRC

The Full SASEA BRAIN™

636K+ pre-computed metrics · Live data cascade · 24-month forecasts

$99/mo

Pro tier

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