Market Fundamentals Components (the fundies)

Twenty nine years of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation actual data. Plus, eight interconnected forecast models estimate supply, demand, and storage forces that tip the balance of the U.S. natural gas market.

1

29 Years of Market History

SASEA has a deep knowledge base across natural gas, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, and pipeline infrastructure. In addition, SASEA taps into decades of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation data — all queryable through natural conversation.

Ask anything in any context and get factual, logical answers with contextual analysis in ~25 seconds or less.

DATA COVERAGE

15 live data sources · 88+ database tables · 800K+ pre-computed metrics always ready · 29 years of historical depth

2

24-Month Component Forecasts

A suite of walk-forward validated models forecasting every component of natural gas supply, demand, and storage 24 months forward. Each model refreshes daily with live data — zero human intervention.

Experiment with your own assumptions directly in chat, or (with Desk and Team mode) upload the SASEA BRAIN™ Balance Report workbook — SASEA backfills latest actuals and populates forward months with the most recent forecasts.

MODEL SUITE

30+ automated fetch + refresh workflows · Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) refresh 6x/day · 4 NWP forecast models · 5-region bottom-up storage stack

US Weather & Economy

Gas-intensity and population-weighted HDD/CDD across 9 Census Divisions with NWP forecasts from 7 numerical weather models and econometric demand modeling.

Weekly + 6x/day NWPFully Automated

R² = 0.957

Model Accuracy

CONUS HDD/CDD, implied gas demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 199-city GFS + ECMWF weather forecasts
  • Gas-intensity weighted degree days
  • Implied gas demand factors (Bcf/HDD, Bcf/CDD)
  • FRED economic indicators (INDPRO, TCU, GDP)
  • 30-year normal deviation analysis

Data Sources

NOAA CPCGFSECMWFGEFSEC ENSFREDEIA

NatGas Production

US natural gas production tracking with rig-based forecasts, DPR basin breakdowns, and STEO-calibrated 24-month forward outlook.

Monthly + weekly nowcastFully Automated

MAE = 2.07 pp (Phase 2)

Model Accuracy

US dry gas production (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • National and basin-level production history
  • Rig-count production forecast
  • Walk-forward validated at basin level
  • DPR basin breakdowns (7 basins)
  • STEO-calibrated 24-month forward outlook

Data Sources

EIA-914EIA DPRBaker HughesSTEO

Imports/Exports & LNG

Mexico pipeline and LNG trade flows with multi-model regression forecasts and terminal-level detail for the operational US LNG export fleet.

MonthlyFully Automated

R² = 0.60–0.96 by route

Model Accuracy

Pipeline + LNG trade flows (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly trade flows by route and direction
  • LNG export facility tracker (9 operating, 5 under construction) with utilization
  • 4-model LNG trade forecast (R² = 0.746)
  • Mexico pipeline exports (R² = 0.96)
  • List all LNG export facilities in the US

Data Sources

EIASTEODOE LNG Reports

NatGas Demand (Non-Electric)

Six non-electric demand sectors — Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Vehicle, Lease & Plant, Pipeline — with weather-normalized HDD/CDD regression forecasts.

MonthlyFully Automated

R² = 0.76–0.99 by sector

Model Accuracy

Res/Com/Ind demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Sector-level demand decomposition (Bcf/d)
  • Residential regression (R² = 0.978)
  • Commercial regression (R² = 0.975)
  • Industrial demand with INDPRO + TCU (R² = 0.775)
  • Weather-demand sensitivity factors by month

Data Sources

EIANOAA CPCFRED

NatGas Demand (Electric Generation)

Gas-for-power dispatch modeling — the largest and most volatile demand sector (~35% of total). Merit-order dispatch engine across 17 US balancing authorities with 18,000+ generators, per-ISO regional weather, and vintage-adjusted heat rates.

Daily (weekday dispatch + 4-week forward)Fully Automated

R² = 0.954

Model Accuracy

Gas-fired power burn by ISO (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Merit-order economic dispatch across 7 ISOs + 10 additional BAs
  • 18,000+ generators with per-ISO coal-gas switching baselines
  • Per-ISO gas burn forecasting with regional HDD/CDD weather drivers
  • Vintage-adjusted heat rates by technology (CCGT, CT, coal ST, steam)
  • Wind/solar/hydro/nuclear displacement quantification
  • Weekly generation by fuel type (gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro)

Data Sources

EIA-930EIA Form 860NOAA NWPEPA CEMS

NatGas EG Displacement (Nuclear & Renewables)

95 nuclear reactors tracked daily via NRC, plus wind and solar capacity growth — quantifying gas displacement from non-gas generation changes.

Daily (nuclear) + Monthly (renewables)Fully Automated

R² = 0.68–0.997

Model Accuracy

Nuclear capacity factor, renewable displacement (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 95 nuclear units tracked daily (NRC status)
  • Fleet capacity factor monitoring
  • Wind + solar capacity growth tracking
  • Gas burn displacement estimates (Bcf/d)
  • Seasonal outage pattern analysis

Data Sources

NRCEIASTEO

NatGas Storage

Weekly EIA storage tracking with the V17 national storage model (566 features, 10-year lookback), NWP-driven live forecasts, end-of-season projections, and Monte Carlo confidence intervals.

6x/day (NWP-driven) + weekly validationFully Automated

RMSE = 3.44 Bcf | 100% directional

Model Accuracy

Weekly storage change forecast (Bcf)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • V17 national storage forecast (RMSE = 3.44 Bcf)
  • 100% directional accuracy (53-week backtest)
  • 566-feature universe, 10-year lookback window
  • NWP-driven: refreshes with every GFS/ECMWF update
  • End-of-season Monte Carlo (P10/P50/P90)

Data Sources

EIANOAA CPCGFSECMWFGEFSNRC

NatGas (fundies) Balance Report

The SASEA BRAIN™ — synthesizes all seven fundamentals models

Integrates all seven supply and demand models into a complete monthly supply/demand balance with 24-month forward outlook. The only AI-powered integrated NG S&D balance available.

DailyFully Automated

Integrates all components

Model Accuracy

Total supply vs total demand balance (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly S&D balance sheet (supply, demand, storage residual)
  • Cross-model integration (all 7 models)
  • 24-month forward balance with implied storage
  • EOS projection with balance-constrained weekly disaggregation
  • Automated reconciliation with EIA actuals

Data Sources

EIASTEONOAA CPCFREDNRC

Get All 8 Components

8 integrated forecast models. Live API connections. AI-powered updates.

$99/mo

Pro tier. Starter tier available from $49/mo.